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Dec 10, 2012
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we're at a 0% interest rate environment until 2013. and after, they will still be at that point. >> the reason i ask. wednesday they've got the new announcement. operation twist which has kept rates low. >> and they'll probably extend. >> you think they'll extend that. will the market respond though? >> i think that allows the market then to price what's going to happen on the fiscal side. fiscal tightening, there's a responsibility. in europe they're trying to shrink their way into growth. i don't think that's going to work. in the united states we have to have short-term balance stimulus and longer term very controlled ratcheted down austerity. if that does happen, you could set the backdrop for a solid economy. >> what would you buy here right now? >> the discussions we're having with our clients is that they shouldn't be taking any more credit risks than they're comfortable with. everything can change very quickly if the politicians fail to come up with a responsible solution to this. foremost, you shouldn't be taking excess credit
we're at a 0% interest rate environment until 2013. and after, they will still be at that point. >> the reason i ask. wednesday they've got the new announcement. operation twist which has kept rates low. >> and they'll probably extend. >> you think they'll extend that. will the market respond though? >> i think that allows the market then to price what's going to happen on the fiscal side. fiscal tightening, there's a responsibility. in europe they're trying to shrink...
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Dec 11, 2012
12/12
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it's a really good trading environment if you use that dollar as your headlights. and there's a causal factor between policy and what the dollar does. and you can kind of really key off of that. >> and policy, though, also, when you look over to europe, is another part of why i think stocks have gone higher. so, germany, it went to january of 2008 highs. we're effectively at five-year highs and you've got a place where people expect european policy also to deliver. but germany, which is the export engine, really, to the world, i think, is telling you something. if you look at their exporters, they have been rallying. if you look at evaluations here, they're not terrible if you look at the export market picking up, especially in china. watch this. it's not all about u.s. fiscal cliff. one of the things we've been seeing rallying in this market are u.s. multinational that are exposed to a better environment. >> quick touch on cummins here. you see the headlines. billion dollar buy back just announced by cmi, so, the sock is trading higher, a little bit in the afterho
it's a really good trading environment if you use that dollar as your headlights. and there's a causal factor between policy and what the dollar does. and you can kind of really key off of that. >> and policy, though, also, when you look over to europe, is another part of why i think stocks have gone higher. so, germany, it went to january of 2008 highs. we're effectively at five-year highs and you've got a place where people expect european policy also to deliver. but germany, which is...
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Dec 5, 2012
12/12
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. >> in two minutes we have left, let's talk about the current environment. what are you hearing from a lot of the senior executives that are asking for your advice or if you're in a board room or chatting with them especially in terms of the fiscal cliff and concern about making big decisions or lack thereof and not putting money at it. >> the interesting part is talk about the fiscal cliff is the talk about the talk about the fiscal cliff. i don't think people are as concerned as the level of chatter that goes around. i think the chatter is more than the concern. the fiscal cliff just happens to be a preset deal on a scale of one to ten. it's a deal that is possible as outcome. i think what the country should hope for is that we come up with a better deal. business wants the rules. i understand why business is very much do a deal. do a something. because a business then can make their plans around that. if a marginal tax rate goes up too high here, they'll put a plant somewhere else. you can make those decisions. they want to know the rules. >> know the rul
. >> in two minutes we have left, let's talk about the current environment. what are you hearing from a lot of the senior executives that are asking for your advice or if you're in a board room or chatting with them especially in terms of the fiscal cliff and concern about making big decisions or lack thereof and not putting money at it. >> the interesting part is talk about the fiscal cliff is the talk about the talk about the fiscal cliff. i don't think people are as concerned as...
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Dec 13, 2012
12/12
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this was built in a growth environment, but the company needs to adjust the structure to the crisis in europe. europe is the main problem for europe because if you look at the global face, danone was able to positive 1.1% for the first three months of the year excludeing europe. at the same time in europe, it was 0.6% contraction. that's a problem for danone, the economic crisis in europe. the company is facing increasing pressure from some of its shareholders include nelson phelps. he believes that the share price of danone has a significant growth potential, something like 60% over the next two years. which is much higher than the current share price where at 51 euros this morning. danone is trying to save 200 million euros. that's the only number we really know for sure at the moment and that's the main response to the pressure from its shareholders. over to you. >> thanks very much. staying with france for just a second, the finance minister is commenting about the agreement that the euro group reached on the banking up. it's integrity is good for the agreement and as we focus on g
this was built in a growth environment, but the company needs to adjust the structure to the crisis in europe. europe is the main problem for europe because if you look at the global face, danone was able to positive 1.1% for the first three months of the year excludeing europe. at the same time in europe, it was 0.6% contraction. that's a problem for danone, the economic crisis in europe. the company is facing increasing pressure from some of its shareholders include nelson phelps. he believes...
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Dec 10, 2012
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challenging environment for priceline even though it says the shares are still attractively values. road map is going to go like this. fiscal cliff face-off coming to an end. the president and the speaker holding a meeting at the white house this weekend. we are live in washington with the latest. what it all could mean for the che. whether or not we go over the cliff could have a major impact on the markets in 2013. barclays coming out with its outlook. we'll talk to their first strategist. weeks away from christmas but today is the busiest day actually i think in corporate history for fedex. millions of deliveries being processed. we'll take you live to a fedex center as millions of dollars, nothing to laugh about. we'll introduce you to the entrepreneur who has managed to make big money making people laugh with his company cheeseburger. that's coming up later this hour. we'll start in washington. president obama, speaker boehner met face-to-face over the weekend to talk some fiscal cliff. our john harwood is live at the white house with more on that. john, good morning. >> good m
challenging environment for priceline even though it says the shares are still attractively values. road map is going to go like this. fiscal cliff face-off coming to an end. the president and the speaker holding a meeting at the white house this weekend. we are live in washington with the latest. what it all could mean for the che. whether or not we go over the cliff could have a major impact on the markets in 2013. barclays coming out with its outlook. we'll talk to their first strategist....
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Dec 6, 2012
12/12
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still a difficult operating environment. under the former chancellor's plan, we would have been borrowing less in the next three years. because the government has failed to get our economy growing and because the policies have pushed us into recent double dip recession, they'll be pr rowing 212 billion pounds more than they planned. put that in context, that is the equivalent of what we in the uk will be spending this financial year on health, transport and defense in aggregate. >> you were talking quite rightly about the low level of he have credit growth in the uk, which has obviously been a feature of this period. but there's a question of what's cause and what's effect there. the banks will tell you that that problem is not so much availability of credit, there's credit demand and even in the mortgage sector which under normal circumstances you might have been eager to see people borrow money. we're seeing net repayments for the first time for a very, very long time. so you can take the economy to water, but you can't ma
still a difficult operating environment. under the former chancellor's plan, we would have been borrowing less in the next three years. because the government has failed to get our economy growing and because the policies have pushed us into recent double dip recession, they'll be pr rowing 212 billion pounds more than they planned. put that in context, that is the equivalent of what we in the uk will be spending this financial year on health, transport and defense in aggregate. >> you...
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Dec 7, 2012
12/12
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in that environment you would see modest upward pressure on yields. now, is it possible that you would get more upward pressure on yields. possible. you're starting from a very low level. if the economy were to accelerate more sharply. if we were to get a more expansionary fiscal year. if the payroll tax cut was extended i don't expect that but if that were to happen, that probably would put more awkward pressure on longer term yields. >> setting up next week, fed meeting, an event or not? >> i think it's pretty clear what we're going to see in at least the broad outline. i would expect continued pace of asset purchases at $85 billion a month. that is widely expected. i think for good reason. i think that there are some questions about the details, of course, what are mature ranges going to be and things like that. you'll always have those kind of questions so there's uncertainty there. i don't think we're going to see a lot of new innovation beyond that sort of extension of the $85 billion pace of purchases. >> good to see you. thanks. >>> still ahea
in that environment you would see modest upward pressure on yields. now, is it possible that you would get more upward pressure on yields. possible. you're starting from a very low level. if the economy were to accelerate more sharply. if we were to get a more expansionary fiscal year. if the payroll tax cut was extended i don't expect that but if that were to happen, that probably would put more awkward pressure on longer term yields. >> setting up next week, fed meeting, an event or...
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Dec 5, 2012
12/12
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. >> you know what, i think the environment, as you look out to next year, is really difficult, ross. i mean, you don't really know what is going to come out of the u.s. fiscal cliff, how damaging potentially that can be to u.s. confidence, u.s. activity. things seem to be holding up fairly well in china. but i think there is still going to be some concerns about the whole performance of the asian economy and whether that can actually pick up next year. and then, of course, in the eurozone itself, we seem to be mending the problems progressively and taking out the tail risks, which i think is good and that is the bottom line that investors should take going further forward, but at the same time, there are some elements that you can have. if you do a forecast, in a way you could come up with something like 1% quotes for next year, but at the same time, you have to be conscious that we've had such a battery of downside impact, downside negative news coming through really for all economists in the western world in the last few years. you have to be very cognizant of those. >> i think so.
. >> you know what, i think the environment, as you look out to next year, is really difficult, ross. i mean, you don't really know what is going to come out of the u.s. fiscal cliff, how damaging potentially that can be to u.s. confidence, u.s. activity. things seem to be holding up fairly well in china. but i think there is still going to be some concerns about the whole performance of the asian economy and whether that can actually pick up next year. and then, of course, in the...
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Dec 12, 2012
12/12
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i think american corporations have done a terrific job of coping with a tough regulatory environment, a tough financial. the aftermath of this financial crisis. a lot of negative publicity. and made a lot of money. >> we want to rise above. do we not have a debt ceiling right after that? >> the debt ceiling. the interesting question whether they're going to roll -- >> here's what i think. we haven't talked about this. so i say president obama allows us to go over the cliff temporarily so that all the rates go up. then the democrats introduce a bill to lower it for 9 %, do some other stiff -- 98%, do some other stuff they want to do. then the republicans say fine but we've got to hold the debt ceiling, that's the next bargaining chip. i don't think we can use rides above for the debt ceiling because we don't want to rise above the debt ceiling. we have to come one new buttons -- >> pins, the whole thing. yeah. that is a dilemma. what a polemic -- >> constantino is cutting me off. you're going to hold that against me? all right. >> you can hear the voice in my head. >> yeah. he's mad be
i think american corporations have done a terrific job of coping with a tough regulatory environment, a tough financial. the aftermath of this financial crisis. a lot of negative publicity. and made a lot of money. >> we want to rise above. do we not have a debt ceiling right after that? >> the debt ceiling. the interesting question whether they're going to roll -- >> here's what i think. we haven't talked about this. so i say president obama allows us to go over the cliff...
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Dec 6, 2012
12/12
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we are smith travel, if you look at those numbers, it's a very positive environment. the fiscal cliff will affect people when employment gets affected. this is a real issue. if you see something occurring with employment, we're sensitive, we're monitoring, we represent the folks that are going to be most affected if they don't do their job in washington. we're obviously concerned about it. if they deal with it, which we think they will. we think that next year should be pretty positive. >> meanwhile big party tonight? >> big party tonight, big party last night. >> that's what the city's all about. >> we'll be opening white plains in may, it will be a little warmer than it was up there last night. it's very exciting to see those hotels get done. 1,000 jobs for the city. >> you see at the bottom of your screen, nat gas inventory. >> listen natural gas prices are extending their gains from yet, after that 4% rally that we saw. we're looking at resistance perhaps around the 4.75 level. we saw a natural gas level that was certainly not what analysts were expectings. 65 bil
we are smith travel, if you look at those numbers, it's a very positive environment. the fiscal cliff will affect people when employment gets affected. this is a real issue. if you see something occurring with employment, we're sensitive, we're monitoring, we represent the folks that are going to be most affected if they don't do their job in washington. we're obviously concerned about it. if they deal with it, which we think they will. we think that next year should be pretty positive....
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Dec 12, 2012
12/12
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i think the key question is going to be is that sustainable in an environment that's very promotional and with a competitor, sam's, that is starting to pivot toward more price reinvestment. >> your skepticism echos what the journal had this morning. great business, smart model, great balance sheet management, but at $98 here, it's hard to move the stock s that your thesis? >> it is. the stock is certainly richly valued. we also think that costco is largely a membership fee model. the company increased the membership fee about a year ago. you're now seeing decelerated growth for membership fees. it was a nice part of the thesis. that's kind of in the rear view mirror. the stock looks expensive. not a lot of margin opportunity in the model. it's a good growth opportunity. a phenomenal business. really fully valued here. >> finally, colin, the special dividend took a lot of people by surprise. do you think that marks a shift in the behavior of balance sheet management at the company? >> the company is extremely underleveraged, i.e. overcapitalized. they have excess cash. i think they lik
i think the key question is going to be is that sustainable in an environment that's very promotional and with a competitor, sam's, that is starting to pivot toward more price reinvestment. >> your skepticism echos what the journal had this morning. great business, smart model, great balance sheet management, but at $98 here, it's hard to move the stock s that your thesis? >> it is. the stock is certainly richly valued. we also think that costco is largely a membership fee model....
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Dec 12, 2012
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if the opposition does win, i think you will see a move toward a poor -- a more investment-friendly environment which, in my view, rusty, will see bonds continue their downward trend. and you could see a new equilibrium in terms of bond yields. closer to peers, ukraine, mongolia, even nigeria which are yielding between 4% and 6%. you have to remember that venezuela has been in double-digit yield territory over the past ten years. precisely because of these distortionary policies and the nationalization from the chavez regime. a move toward opening the oil market, possibly joint ventures which is what the opposition has been talking about, in investment in the oil market would be a net positive. and i think would push venezuelan yield down to around the 4.5%, 5.5% arena. >> okay. following developments out of miami from baltic capital markets. >>> as the year draws to a close, twitter has made loggers log in, tweet, and re-tweet in 2010. the most re-tweeted, president obama's four more years after winning re-election last month, accompanied by a picture of him embracing first lady michelle obama
if the opposition does win, i think you will see a move toward a poor -- a more investment-friendly environment which, in my view, rusty, will see bonds continue their downward trend. and you could see a new equilibrium in terms of bond yields. closer to peers, ukraine, mongolia, even nigeria which are yielding between 4% and 6%. you have to remember that venezuela has been in double-digit yield territory over the past ten years. precisely because of these distortionary policies and the...
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Dec 10, 2012
12/12
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., what they want to see is a stable environment to put that money to work. if we can get that capital into the u.s. that will be a stimulus program by itself. >> frits, we pending on how you look at the numbers there are peel who say these two proposals aren't that far off. if you look at the numbers on each side and maybe try to find some common ground in the middle, maybe get to $1.2 trillion, where do you go on spending cuts is the big question because that seems to be a little easier. do you think this needs to be a three to one when it comes to revenue versus revenue increase or three to one when it comes to spending cuts versus revenue increases? do you see one to one, what would make you feel good looking around the globe and looking at what -- >> i'm not a tax expert so i can't give you a precise ratio. what we need to do is see a program where, if you look at reasonable numbers, you could see that the debt-to-gdp ratio comes down over time. as we go from $16 trillion, as we cross that 100% mark, we start looking more and more like countries in europ
., what they want to see is a stable environment to put that money to work. if we can get that capital into the u.s. that will be a stimulus program by itself. >> frits, we pending on how you look at the numbers there are peel who say these two proposals aren't that far off. if you look at the numbers on each side and maybe try to find some common ground in the middle, maybe get to $1.2 trillion, where do you go on spending cuts is the big question because that seems to be a little...